Seacoast Christmas Gatherings and COVID-19: How Bad Is The Risk?

What are the chances one of your holiday guests will have COVID-19?

Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology are attempting to answer that very question with a new interactive map that shows the likelihood, based on size of gatherings and location, that someone could be infected with coronavirus at your holiday gathering.

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According to the map, there is a 28% chance someone could be infected with COVID-19 at a gathering of just 10 people in Rockingham County. In Strafford County, that number goes down to 23% and in York County the risk is 19% for a gathering of 10 people. Essex County had the highest risk factor, according to the map, at a 38% chance someone at a 10-person gathering could have coronavirus.

Elsewhere in New England, the risks vary. Say you were taking a holiday trip to Nantucket and there were 25 people at the gathering; according to the map, there would be an 81% chance that someone there could be infected with COVID-19.

Not surprisingly, the risk gets higher as the number of guests increase. The odds someone could have COVID-19 at a 20-person gathering in Rockingham County is the same as flipping a coin. Essex County is even worse at 64%, and Strafford and York Counties (37% and 34%, respectively) and behind them.

As COVID-19 cases continue to rise on the Seacoast, Dover and Rochester, both of which are located in Strafford County, are the biggest hotspots for COVID-19 on the Seacoast. Durham, Hampton and Portsmouth have all been relatively high in active case numbers through much of the pandemic.