Trump Maintains Lead, Ramaswamy Rises in UNH Presidential Poll
Donald Trump maintains his lead, Ron DeSantis drops to fourth place, and Vivek Ramaswamy doubles his numbers in a new poll of likely New Hampshire Republicans.
The CNN New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, gives the former president a commanding lead over entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 39%-13%. Ramaswamy continues the momentum that started with the first Republican debate when he jabbed verbally with DeSantis, Chris Christie, and Mike Pence.
The only good news for DeSantis, who in November was even with Trump, is being the second choice for 23% of those polled followed by Ramaswamy.
"DeSantis' slide in New Hampshire tracks with reporting that he is putting all of his electoral eggs in the Iowa basket, with a hard right, socially conservative message that is more likely to resonate with evangelicals in Iowa than with libertarian-leaning Republicans in New Hampshire," said Southern New Hampshire University Civic Scholar and founder of NH Political Capital Dean Spiliotes.
Christie, who told the New York Times in an interview last week he would get out of the race if he does poorly in New Hampshire, was named by 60% of those polled as the candidate they would not vote for under any circumstances. The former New Jersey governor is one of several anti-Trump candidates clumped together in the poll.
"The problem is that the anti-Trump vote in New Hampshire is evenly split between four other candidates, all essentially tied for second place. This is exactly what some anti-Trump Republicans were concerned would happen, just like 2016. The field needs to narrow if any one candidate is to have a chance of challenging Trump," Spiliotes said.
While Trump's lead is double that of Ramaswamy, the New Hampshire number is below his national average.
"This suggests at least the possibility of further movement in the race here. Trump's Iowa numbers are lagging the national polling as well," Spiliotes said.
UNH pollsters also found that only 36% of likely 2024 Republican primary voters say that they have definitely decided who they will vote for, 38% say they are leaning toward someone, and 24% are still trying to decide. 69% of Trump supporters, however, say that they have already decided who will get their vote.